Chairman’s Letter* （p3-11）

*Copyright © 2023 By Warren E. Buffett All Rights Reserved

公司业务

公司业务分为两大分类：第一类是 100% 旗下自行管理的子公司，另一类是投资在上市公司，收取被动收入。

在投资上市公司方面会选择：

“…meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers…“

“具有长期优势的经济特质” 和 “值得信赖的管理层”

“…Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers…”

“挑选企业，不是选股”

“…Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction….”

“创造性破坏” – 会有好的公司不断的出现，之前好的公司也会变成没有竞争性，被淘汰。

“…episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low…”

“上市公司的股价一直波动，时常跟公司业绩背道而驰，偶尔在适当的时候才可以用合理的价格买到好的公司”

Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.

相反的，在购买子公司时，在价格方面就比较难买到合理的价格，除非他们事处于被逼的情况下卖出。

“…In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luc“k…”

有时，也是要靠点运气”

”…Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders…”

“好股不必多“。 它指的是 Coca-Cola 和 American Express 这两只股的股息收入就不得了了，而且股价还不断的增值！

公司回购股的好坏区别

当公司的股数减少，股东在公司的利益就增加了。也就是说，如果公司能用合理的价格一步一步的回购股，就是小的数量，也是有很大的帮助。但如果是用高价回购，那卖家就从中得利，而原有的股东就亏了。

所以当公司回购股时，只要是用低价回购，这做法是对的。

账目是会被操纵的

记得 Operating earnings 也是会被管理层操纵的。记者和分析师们也乐于接受这种做法。超越‘预期’往往被吹捧为管理层的胜利。

接受错误

错误肯定有，但要避免重大的错误。是美国造就了Berkshire，不是 Berkshire 造就了美国 （时势造英雄）。

庞大的筹备金

公司保持庞大的筹备金和 U.S. Treasury bills以防不利的时期，包括金融恐慌和前所未有的保险损失情况。

Charlie 总结 Buffett 的见解 / 看法

【以下是的中文是用 Chat GPT 直接翻译的】

1. The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor. “世界上到处都是莽撞的赌徒，他们永远比不上耐心的投资者。”
2. If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens. “如果你看不清世界的本来样子，就等于透过扭曲的镜头去判断事物。”
3. All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly. “我只想知道自己会死在什么地方，这样就绝不会去那儿。顺带一提：早点写下你理想中的讣告，然后照着它去行动。”
4. If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results. “如果你不在意自己是否理性，就不会去努力改善。结果你会一直不理性，最终得到糟糕的结果。”
5. Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage. “耐心是可以培养的。能长时间专注于一件事，是一大优势。”
6. You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest. “你可以从已故的人身上学到很多。阅读那些你敬佩或厌恶的已故人物的事迹。”
7. Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy. “如果能游到一艘安全的船，就不要再想如何挽救在下沉的船。”
8. A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that. “一家伟大的公司，即便在你离开后仍会持续运作；一家平庸的公司则不会。”
9. Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time. “我和 Buffett 不会关注市场的泡沫。我们寻找优质的长期投资，并坚持长期持有。”
10. Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying. “Ben Graham说过，‘股市短期像投票机，长期像称重机。’只要你不断增加某样东西的价值，总会有人看出来并开始买入。”
11. There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice. “投资没有绝对保险，所以杠杆很危险。再完美的数据乘以零，也只是零。别指望能发财两次。”
12. You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich. “然而，你并不需要拥有很多东西才能致富。”
13. You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change. “想成为出色的投资者，就得不断学习。世界变了，你也得跟着变。”
14. Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never. “我和 Buffett 几十年来都不看好铁路股，但世界变了，美国最后有了四家对经济极其重要的大铁路公司。我们认识得晚了些，但迟做总比不做好。”

Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.” “最后，我想补上 Charlie 的两句话，这几句话几十年来一直帮他下定决策的因素：‘Buffett，很会思考。你很聪明，但我说得对。’”

I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own: Find a very smart high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says. “我想在查理的建议里加一条：找一个非常聪明、能力出众的合伙人 – 最好比你年长一点 – 然后认真听他讲什么。”

讯息：

1. 公司运作管理：
   • 还是保持一边管理旗下的 100% 子公司，一边投资好的上市公司，赚取被动收入。
   • 公司回购股的好坏区别、账目是会被操纵的、接受错误、庞大的筹备金。
2. Buffett 抛出了他 14 条的生意智慧。